2023-10-27

Missing Features

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Many systems are very handy, but could be a much handier if the implementers had given some thought to extending them a little. I have complained about a number of these issues in the past, but the goal here is to highlight them as unfinished implementations of good ideas.

When I started working at IBM, long ago, the second-system effect had recently been described by Fred Brooks in The Mythical Man-Month. This is the tendency to take small, useful systems and add features that sound good but add so much complexity that the systems become worse, not better. 

But some new features are very useful and worth some complexity. It's a line to cross carefully.

Phones - clocks

The time on a phone clock is generally given in the local time zone. If you don't know what time zone you are in, that is not enough information. The phone knows what time zone it's using, but this information is generally not displayed.

And a phone clock should include the next alarm time. I need to know at a glance when the alarm will sound.

Phones - always on displays

My comments on clocks apply to always on display (AOD) clocks too.

And the always on display should be visible in any light. But with my Samsung phones, the display text is often too dark read. I guess they are trying to increase battery life. But what is the point of the AOD if I can't read it?

My Google phones (from years ago) handled these issues. Why not Samsung?

And Apple still hasn't figured out that an always on display is an important feature.

Cars - sticky switches for driving modes

Car manufacturers have apparently forgotten the value of sticky switches - switches that keep their contents when the car is turned off. Most notably on my Subaru Crosstrek, auto stop/start and sport/"intelligent" driving mode. Why can't it leave my settings alone instead of going back to default every time I start the car?

Cars - wake up - the line is moving

The Crosstrek has a neat feature that beeps for you when you are stopped and the car in front of you moves forward. That's in case you fall asleep in line at a stoplight. But it is not helpful if you are at the front of the line. With all the image processing in the automatic cruise control system (Subaru uses a pair of cameras, not radar), you would think that the car could tell you if the stoplight turns green. Or maybe this crosses into the second-system effect.

Cars - backup cameras

Backup cameras in cars are great. I often would like to see the backup camera display when not in reverse. For example when going forward while parallel parking. That should be trivial, just a screen button.

Cars - daytime running lights


Daytime running lights seem like a good idea. But why only on the front of the car. Especially in fog, I want all four corners lit.

(My solution - I leave the headlights on all the time. This includes the corner lights. I have LED lights that don't use much power and last a long time.)

Cars - automatic headlights

Automatic headlights - another great idea except - they need to turn on at dusk, not when it is dark. And they need to turn on in the rain and fog. The light sensor could be adjustable so that it catches dim/cloudy/rainy conditions. And the car could turn on the lights whenever the windshield wipers are on.

Also, if you need to turn on the headlights when in automatic mode (because the car doesn't) - how about a separate button for that instead of having to change the mode? That way it could change back to automatic automatically.

As noted above, I just leave the headlights on all the time.

Cars - turn signals

Turn signals - how do you signal a U turn? A simple addition would be another blinking sequence - short, off, long, off, ... could signal a U turn. A bit more difficult would be the driver's switch for this.

Computer Mice

Mice would be much better if they could be put in horizontal or vertical only mode. On Amazon, I see a lot of mice with variable resolution. This sounds very useful. I will have to try one.

Stereos - tone controls


I guess my usage of stereo dates me. But I have found no point in having more channels for my sound system. And as my hearing deteriorates, high fidelity seems pointless. But as my hearing deteriorates, I need better tone controls. Specifically, more important than bass and treble is upper midrange, also known as presence. It adds clarity to speech (consonants) and timbre (the sound of an instrument that makes it unique). But this is seldom found on home stereos. I could add an external equalizer, but just a presence knob would handle most issues.

Incidentally, you could probably get rid of the treble control. Adding or subtracting with a 10 KHz shelf filter is completely pointless to me, and probably the vast majority of people that spend their life in the noise pollution of America. (This morning I did a one mile walk underneath a circling helicopter. It's hard to express the anxiety and frustration this causes.)

2023-10-25

More On Sports

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The Chess Clock


The chess clock was a brilliant invention. This is two stopwatches, each with a flag that falls after a set interval. Only one clock runs at a time. To start the game, the clocks are zeroed and the first clock is started. The first player makes a move and hits a button that stops the first clock and starts the second. The second player makes a move and hits a button that stops the second clock and starts the first. And so on until either the game is won or a flag falls. If your flag falls, you have exceeded your allotted time - you lose.

It should be used for more than just chess. Scrabble and similar games would be improved. You might need more than two timers, but that's easy with a phone app.

How about using it in debates to ensure equal talk time? Your microphone would be turned on only while your clock is running. Perhaps after your flag falls, the interval would be set for just 10 seconds to allow for short responses.

How about group discussions? An enhancement might be a "waiting" button to get in line to talk. And a "go to the front of the waiting line" button to get priority to talk - but this should probably cost you by reducing your time allotment.

Frisbee Golf


Frisbee golf looks fun. I've never tried it. But I wonder, why just Frisbees? What other object would be fun? Baseball, golf ball, dart? Corn hole bag, horseshoe, nunchucks? Paper airplane? Maybe punted football golf would be interesting.

How about any object golf? I wonder what would dominate - Frisbee, baseball, golf ball, dart? Certainly not a basketball, football, or shot (as in shot put).

Volleyball

Volleyball - why six players on a side? Beach volleyball games get by with two players on a side. Maybe part of the game is coordinating traffic.

I was going to ask why only the serving team gets points for winning a rally. I investigated and found that there are now two types of scoring in use. In "side out" scoring only the serving side gets a point for winning a rally. In "rally" scoring, introduced around 2000, either side wins a point for winning the rally. Rally scoring makes a lot more sense to me.

Auto Racing

My favorite automobile racing was the Can-Am series from 1966 to 1974. Almost anything goes cars. Two seats, wheels enclosed by the body. This made it a technology race and the cars were very interesting. Unfortunately, each year, usually, one team had a technology advantage that led to domination. Can-Am saw wings (driver adjustable, attached directly to the suspension until they realized how dangerous that was), active ground effects aerodynamics, turbocharging, titanium. Now we have NASCAR with fake family cars, Indy cars are all the same car with a couple of engine choices. Formula 1 allows a lot of innovation, but tends to outlaw things that are too good. One change that I would like to see for all open wheel race cars is to reduce the allowed width significantly to make passing easier.

A New Class of Auto Racing

How about a new sport? Auto racing with self driving cars. The cars should be standardized to emphasize the driving. And probably be restricted to low enough power that aerodynamics is not a major issue. Maybe with standardized sensors - cameras, maybe radar. And maybe a standardized computer. Download each team's software into random, nominally identical cars right before the race.

This would be a great way to speed development of self driving cars. The goal of the cars would not be quite the same as an on the road self driving car, but pretty close. Drive a number of laps on a road course. Do not crash.

An interesting possibility would be alternate routes. The cars could track the current traffic conditions on the different routes and choose the best. Roundabouts would be another interesting addition.

I wonder if you could get a human driver to compete with the self driving cars?

2023-10-15

The End of Streaming TV

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For many years, I have used TV streaming services (Netflix, Hulu, Prime, Peacock, HBO) on a rotating basis. (Actually Prime is part of Amazon Prime so I always have it). I like finding a long series and watching it start to finish. I have seen some great shows that captured my interest quickly (some slow starts) and kept it for the entire series. In alphabetical order -

  1883
  1923
  After Life
  As We See It
  Atypical
  Better Call Saul
  Bosch
  Breaking Bad
  Dead to Me
  Deadwood
  Enlightened
  Firefly (old antenna TV)
  Game of Thrones
  Hell on Wheels
  Justified (Lexington KY connection!)
  Longmire
  Mad Men (slow start)
  Nurse Jackie
  Orange is the New Black (slow start)
  Ozark
  Peaky Blinders
  The Queen's Gambit (Lexington KY connection!)
  The Sopranos
  Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
  Yellowstone (slow start)

(2026-07-12
  For All Mankind
  Lessons in Chemistry (great book) 
  Reacher
  Weeds (from VHS rental days) 
)

Some other shows have kept me going - let's say good, not great -

  Disenchanted
  The Good Fight
  The Good Place (old antenna TV)
  The Handmaid's Tale (great book, The Testaments too, okay TV)
  House (old antenna TV)
  Monk (old antenna TV)

But now, there is nothing. I've tried an uncounted number of Star Trek series, Wheel of Time, The Man in the High Castle, Russian Doll, Stranger Things, Bridgerton, The Witcher, The Mandalorian, Carnival Row, The Rings of Power, The Boys, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, The Expanse, Sneaky Pete, Mozart in the Jungle, The Flight Attendant. Highly rated shows - blech, boring or stupid.

Ten to fifteen dollars each month was good value for relaxing entertainment. No more.

Three Useful Products

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Inmaker shoe laces

These are very short silicone laces, each one binds one side of the lace holes to the other side. They come in sets of stepped length, two sets to a package. There are several brands - they all look alike to me. The neat aspect of these laces, other than not needing to tie them, is that you can get a different tension at each position.

My goal was to tighten the front-most hole pairs to prevent my foot from sliding to the outside of the shoe, but keep the rest loose and comfortable. There were no pieces that were long enough for second part of the goal, so I have three Inmaker laces and a shortened regular lace for the rest. (I'm working on a way to splice two laces.)

These work well, although I don't know how long they will last.

Amazon search on "inmaker no tie shoelaces" on Amazon.

Roller blade desk chair wheels


The are soft rubber wheels mounted on standard desk chair hardware, easy to substitute on most desk chairs. They are quiet, smooth, and work well on hard surfaces with no mat. Most are three inch diameter and noticeably raise the chair - probably good for carpets but not probably not good for people under 5 ft 8 in. Hirate makes 2 inch wheels that have a robust looking steel mount with swivel ball bearings. Amazon search on "hirate office chair caster". Other 2 inch soft wheels are double wheels on plastic mounts with no ball bearings on the swivel - these might be great, I don't know.

Symple Stuff Aliceville Office Chair from Wayfair.com


A simple desk chair with one hard to find feature - knee tilt. By tilting "at the knee", really about eight inches in front of the seat mount strut, when you tilt, your feet stay on the floor, pretty much. Otherwise a pretty standard desk chair - cushion bottom, mesh back, height adjust, tilt, tilt tension adjust, lumbar support, lumbar height adjust, arm rests with height, angle, and width adjust. The arm rest angle adjust is annoying - it needs to lock in place. The chair works very nicely for me (5 ft 7 in). Except - the lumbar support angle lets it bite into my back. I used two zip ties around the lumbar mount (two oval plastic loops that let the support slide up and down). These squash the top of the oval loop to get the support angle where I need it - no more biting. This chair is way better than anything I could find locally.

I did not want to buy a chair without sitting in it first. At Office Depot, Staples, and a local office supply store, I found one chair that felt good. I bought it, assembled it, sat in it. After about ten minutes it hurt badly. A couple of days later it was worse. I disassembled it (a major pain) and returned it.

Wayfair was easy and shipped quickly. And I got lucky that it works for me.

2023-09-23

Investing - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF

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(2026-05-30 revised)

I am trying to organize a bunch of stray thoughts into a coherent presentation. And I am biased by my personal situation, so this may not work for you. I hope it all makes sense.

Well before I retired in 2016, I was concerned about what to do with my retirement portfolio. I had enough money to retire, but how could I protect it in case of a stock market crash? I took a pretty standard and conservative path - primarily 60/40 stock/bond mutual funds.

As retirement progressed, I knew there was a problem with this. Interest rates had been falling for many years, giving bond funds a nice boost. But rates were approaching 0. And it was obvious that something would happen eventually to restart inflation and force interest rates to rise. Not only would stocks crash, but bond values would drop as yield on new bonds rose.

Not knowing what else to do, I stuck with my strategy.

COVID came and set off a chain of events that crashed the stock market and induced inflation. The Fed pushed up interest rates and bond funds dropped. But bond funds dropped far more than predictions based on their average duration. Eventually stocks rose and my portfolio was not a complete disaster. But looking back, if everything had been in an S&P 500 fund (not considered a particularly safe place for money in retirement), I would have done much better.

So back to the big question. Where should I put my retirement money so that I get regular income, the income rises with inflation, and economic events don't crush my strategy?

The graph below shows total return, NOT adjusted for inflation, since 2019, VOO (S&P 500 index ETF), SCHD (dividend index ETF), VBIAX (60/40 index fund), AGG (aggregate bond index ETF).  

Https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?symbol=voo+schd+vbiax+agg 

if you want to play with the data. My graph can be replicated with Range - Select Start/End and Start YYYY-MM-DD - 2019-01-01.

 


Bonds (AGG in the graph) -

Bonds take two hits on inflation. The principal and interest lose buying power by the inflation rate. And the Fed raises interest rates to try to reduce the inflation, so new bonds issue with a higher yield, which devalues existing bonds.

In the graph, bonds are dead flat over this period due to rising interest rates. And that assumes no withdrawals.

In better times, the interest rate is little better than the inflation rate. And the principal does not grow so there is no adjustment for inflation.

CDs -

CDs act just like bonds, but at a lower interest rate in return for FDIC insurance (up to $250,000 per owner, per bank).

These will likely lose to inflation. If you distribute them properly you can get FDIC insurance on all of your assets. But will the FDIC survive an economic collapse? Well, it better or you can expect collapse of the banking system and our society.

60/40 or 40/60 Funds (VBIAX in the graph) -

In the graph, stocks crash and bonds don't grow. The bond portion contributed nothing to the total return.

Bonds do reduce the volatility of the investment. But in the graphed example, after three years, the pure stock asset is so far ahead of the 60/40 fund that it covers any typical stock market crash.

Annuities -

These have high management fees, you lose control of your assets, you have nothing to leave to heirs. And in a severe economic collapse, the managing company may fail and the insurance may fail.

I looked up a typical payout for an immediate annuity. 7% - about twice the distribution of SCHD. But it never increases. With inflation at 4%, a 7% distribution becomes, effectively, 5.1% in the eleventh year. For SCHD, at a dividend growth rate of 10% minus 4% inflation, a 3.5% distribution becomes, effectively, 5.5% at eleven years. After that SCHD keeps going up and the annuity keeps going down. It is easy to manipulate the results by adjusting the inflation and growth rate.

Dividend Stocks (SCHD in the graph) -

So how about dividend stocks? ETFs for minimal effort, but some people prefer to choose individual stocks.

SCHD ETF seeks to match the S&P Dow Jones US Dividend 100 Index, which screens for quality dividend stocks (stocks only - no REITs). The expense ratio is 0.06% - that's $600 on a $1000,000 investment. (A typical expense ratio for a mutual fund might be 0.75%. That's $7,500 on a $1,000,000 investment.) Historically, this is the best of the dividend ETFs.

SCHD pays about 3.5% in qualified dividends. That's income for you, taxed at the long term capital gains rate (after a short holding period). The payout ratio (dividends divided by earnings) is about 50% (as best I can find). That's 3.5% for the corporations to reinvest in growth, which helped the total return come close to the S&P 500. The dividend growth rate has been about 15% so the dividends grow faster than inflation. That's history, not prediction.

So this looks like a nice place to invest, especially for a taxable account, for people who need to get income from their investment. But is it safe?

It is certainly more volatile than CDs, bonds, and annuities. But it is somewhat less volatile than stocks in general because the dividends add support to the stock price. In the event of major economic problems, the money is (hopefully) in productive businesses. If money making businesses fail en mass, the whole economic system will collapse.

Compare the total return of SCHD versus AGG (aggregate bond ETF), starting 1,2,.. years ago, and then look forward. In every such period, after five years, SCHD is far ahead of AGG. Short-term volatility can hurt, but long-term, you are way ahead with SCHD. Furthermore, the dividends keep coming even when the stock price is down. That's history, not prediction.

So when looking at safety, I will take an investment that has a good record of beating inflation over a non-volatile investment that has little chance of keeping up with inflation. And I like the idea of owning productive businesses rather than debt.

So most of my portfolio is now in dividend stock ETFs, and most of that is SCHD. Does this sound risky? Maybe. But looking back over my past investments, risky would have paid off nicely.

If stocks totally collapse, I have Social Security to keep me going. But if stocks totally collapse, I doubt that Social Security will be far behind.

For dividend stock ETFs, look at SCHD, SPYD, VYM, DGRO, VIG, and there are many more.

BEWARE (2024-07-15) - 

ETFs such as SCHD, and those listed above, that own dividend paying stocks and distribute only those dividends, will not lose shares of stock (although the value of the shares may drop). This is critical to my analysis of risk and keeping up with inflation.

Some dividend ETFs pay out more than the dividends of the stocks that they hold. This can be done by selling shares or using covered calls - either way you risk losing shares. This can be useful for increasing your income, but it risks principal and growth of principal. For long term, passive income that keeps up with inflation, I would stay away from these.

2023-09-19

Cheers and Sighs

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Sigh -

I was at a dance, in a hurry, and needed to get a phone number from someone so that I could text them. They texted me their VCard contact and I imported it. But when I tried to start a text, it wasn't there. Checking in my contact app, there it was, but sorted by first name. The last name was part of the first name instead of a separate value. Fixed, back to text - not there. I verified that it was in my contact list. Restarted my text app, hoping it would import the changed contact list. No. Gave up. The next day I investigated again. Ah - the phone was listed as a home phone, not mobile. So the text app ignored it. Sigh. I can't trust my phone when I'm in a panic. I hope I remember how to dial 911 when the time comes.

Yay -

The new Toyota Prius is a huge step forward. It's a 2023 model, 5th generation, I saw one on the road for the first time a few days ago. By far Toyota's prettiest car. No monster grill. Six inches of ground clearance. 0-60 mph in under 8 seconds. 52 mpg. 10.6 gallons gas tank - with the typical 2 gallon reserve, that's over 400 miles - good enough. Nice - except I really like my Crosstrek's 8.7 inch ground clearance.

Yay -

The Kroger near me has been stocking Dip t-shirts. Nice cotton and unusual, nice colors. About twice the price of t-shirts that I used to get at Walmart. But no-one was selling good t-shirts any more - undersized, polyester blends, boring colors (black, navy blue, red, white), until I found Dip.

Sigh -

What is the fascination with shark attacks? Any shark attack in the world is on NBC, CBS, ABC, and NPR evening news. A few people get mangled or killed every year. That's maybe .0000002% of the world's human population.

Sigh -

My favorite pants - L.L.Bean's Lakewashed, 5 pocket, cotton pants. Cut like jeans, with front pockets that don't promote pick-pocketing, and half the weight of jeans. Great for dancing. GONE.

Yay, Sigh -

I received a new pair of glasses from Zenni Optical today - $50 total with frame, bifocal, anti-reflective coating. Nice, inexpensive. But - The temple pieces are flex titanium. And unfortunately, one side has a lot more curve than the other. How do you change the curve on flex titanium? I can bend it 90 degrees and it unbends to it's original shape.

Fortunately, this is the third "identical" pair that I have purchased. I replaced the pieces with the pieces from my first pair - just a year of use with no noticeable wear. But this seems to be a fundamental problem with flex titanium. You can't accidentally bend your frame, but you also can't bend it intentionally.

My Web Pages and Android Apps

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Web Pages

I have posted many web pages that might be of interest. They are all linked to my home page. I thought descriptions might be useful.

Cary Ravitz - Home Page -  www.ravitz.us

About the World by Cary Ravitz - www.blog.ravitz.us - an unfolded table of contents into my blog. (2025-01-20)

Contra Dance Links - www.cdl.ravitz.us - My links into the world of contra dance. With links for dancers, callers, choreographers, musicians, sound techs.

Contra Dances by Cary Ravitz - www.dance.ravitz.us - All of my dance stuff - contra dances, contra tunes, waltz tunes, robot dancers, notes on choreography, calling, and dancing.

Ravitz Chess - www.chess.ravitz.us - My stacking/nesting chess piece design. STL files for printing on 3D resin or thermoplastic filament printers.

Ravitz Software - www.rs.ravitz.us - My software, including Android apps, Windows text editor, and old printer graphics software.

Ravitz Violin Shoulder Rest - www.vsr.ravitz.us - My violin shoulder rest. A significant departure from other shoulder rests. I'm am not selling these any longer - too much work.

Contra Dances by Mike Boerschig - www.mike.ravitz.us - Mike's contra dances, including the classic Happy as a Cold Pig in Warm Mud.

Dance Trance Reel by David Atcher - www.atcher.ravitz.us - David Atcher's book of tunes for contra dances (print ready PDF). I edited this for David, 2018, and was given permission to post the PDF when he died, 2020.

Darlene Underwood - Home Page - www.darlene.ravitz.us - Darlene's dance caller home page.

Miscellaneous Contra Dances - www.miscdances.ravitz.us - Contra dances with no other good home. Some nice dances, including the classic Cows Are Watching.

Notes on Composing Contras by Al Olson - www.olson.ravitz.us - Al's handwritten notes for a 1988 workshop, a PDF of scanned pages.

Paintings by Ruth Ravitz - www.ruthpaint.ravitz.us - Scans of mostly water color paintings by my mother. Many beautiful pictures.

Kelly Wilhoit's Hand-Me-Downs PDF - www.ravitz.us/hmd.pdf - A memoir by my mother's sisters of growing up in Atlanta, Georgia starting around 1925.

Android Apps


I wrote four Android phone apps a few years ago. They are seldom used by others - I obviously have no concept of what other people like. But I thought it would be useful to describe what makes them different from other apps that have the same primary function. And I added some technical information about fitting the function into Android, because I think it is interesting.

These apps are completely free, have no advertising, and do not sell or give away any data about you (the weather app accesses your current location but keeps only the most recent location). You can find all four in the Google Play Store by searching on "ravitz" (it's handy to have an uncommon name).

RPN/Postfix Calculator

For a long time, I used Free42, an excellent and free Hewlett Packard 42 emulator. It has two problems - low resolution number display and a cluttered keyboard with function that I don't need (primarily programming - it's easier to program a desktop computer or spreadsheet than a calculator).

So my calculator has no programming function. I added cursor left and right for improved number editing, display of the full stack, plus undo, help, last key display, and some button configuration flexibility.

The finished app looks good. Numbers are presented in a high resolution font. The button response isn't as good as it should be, I think largely because I check for a valid number after each keystroke - maybe not a good choice.

Tech paragraph - I wrote the calculator in JavaScript/HTML and used Android's Webview to turn it into an app. Android has a simple way of communicating between the Android Java and Webview JavaScript. You can turn any web page into an Android app pretty easily, or there is an app that does the job with almost no programming.

Clock Widget

I wanted a simple clock widget that displayed the time and day. And I wanted the time zone displayed. When traveling and on two late nights every year, it is not always obvious what time zone you are in. Why not have the complete time displayed?

In addition, the next alarm time is very useful. I use my phone as an alarm clock. Before going to sleep I would like an easy verification that the alarm is set correctly.

Plus size and color flexibility. I think this is a great clock widget.

Interesting that my clock widget and car sometimes differ on the time zone, notably on the western edge of Kansas. The car changes the time at the border. The clock widget (Android) knows that is not where the time zone changes.

Tech paragraph - This requires setting up a widget that sleeps until awaken by a system message, such as next alarm changed. Then it changes the display and goes back to sleep. Time updates are automatic and trivial to program.

MP3 Player

I don't care to subscribe to a music service. I am happy buying MP3 music files from Amazon or copying music from my CD collection. I was very upset once when flying across the country and my music player quit because it couldn't verify that I had paid for it. I want a self contained music system.

And music players do not handle tracks with different volume levels very well. My player lets you add a volume bump to each track or track list.

And it tells you how much time is left in the current track list, so I know if an album will finish before the evening news starts.

Plus optional bass, upper midrange, treble controls instead of Android's separate graphic equalizer.

I'm very happy with the result. I use it often.

Tech paragraph - The user interface is via Webview. Turning MP3 and other music files into music is a simple system function. Keeping the music going while other software is running or the phone goes to sleep requires using an Android foreground service - not simple.

Weather Widget


It's nice to glance at the phone screen and get an overview of the weather. A lot of weather widgets do this, but they tend to be huge (screen area). And are more concerned with being pretty than being informative. After finding a free weather service, maybe not the best forecasts, and navigating Android's background issues, I put together a reliable widget. I added a one page pop up 36 hour hourly forecast to it because that gives you a lot of useful information. And I added a location and forecast update verification line so you know that you are getting timely and location relevant information (not always the case when you are traveling or have a poor internet signal).

This is much more useful than the typical small weather icon. And much smaller than the typical large weather widget. No pretty pictures - after much work, it became apparent that words were a much more compact way to communicate.

Tech paragraph - This uses the sleeping widget concept, like the clock widget. It is awakened via system message, requests a new location, and goes to sleep. Then it is awakened by a location response, gets a new forecast from an internet weather service, updates the display, and goes back to sleep. Not fun - preparing a Google approved procedure to get user permission to access location services in the background.